Global steel output recedes in November

Steel production globally in the 71 countries that report to the Brussels-based World Steel Association (Worldsteel) was 146.8 million metric tons (Mmt) this November, marking a 0.8 percent increase compared with November 2023. The November 2024 total is down nearly 3.5 percent compared with the prior month.

Output in the world’s largest steel producing nation, the People’s Republic of China, rose by 2.5 percent last month compared with November 2023. However, mills in the nation scaled back output this November by 3.5 Mmt (nearly 4.3 percent) compared with the month before.

Month-on-month reductions in output were reported in several of the world’s largest steel producing nations, signaling an end of year global slowdown.

In addition to China, output in Russia dropped by an estimated 100,000 metric tons last month compared with October, while production in Brazil fell by 300,000 metric tons, or more than 9.5 percent.

Although ferrous scrap export destination Turkey held steady with 3 Mmt of production in both November and October, mills in India reported a rare slowdown, making 100,000 metric tons less steel in November compared with October, according to Worldsteel,

Mills in the United States reduced output in November compared with the prior month, with 200,000 metric tons less steel made last month in the U.S. compared with October.

With 11 months of 2024 in the Worldsteel data books, global production dropped by 1.4 percent from January through November of this year compared with the first 11 months of 2023.

Turkey’s steel sector has been the highest percentage riser, adding more than 11 percent of output so far this year compared with the first 11 months of last year. Mills in Russia have seen the biggest reduction in output, according to Worldsteel’s estimates, on a path to make 7 percent less steel in 2024 compared with 2023.

While the U.S. does not import large quantities of steel made in China, organizations and analysts often point to excess capacity in that nation as reducing opportunities for mills in several other parts of the world.

Through the first 11 months of 2024, mills in China scaled back their output by 2.7 percent compared with the same time frame in 2023. Nonetheless, so far in 2024 China has made nearly 55 percent of the world’s steel despite representing around 17.5 percent of the world’s population and about 17 percent of its economy as measured by GDP.

A report released earlier this month by New York-based Fitch Ratings predicts “almost flat steel demand in China in 2025 as manufacturing and infrastructure will drive demand while property contraction will be less severe than before.”

Analysts and national steelmaking trade associations will be watching to what extent that demand leads to reduced mill output in China next year. The same report by Fitch Ratings predicts, “Producers will be more disciplined, so output will remain restricted,” with the firm adding it sees output there “declining by low single digits” in 2025.