Forecasts & statistics

Construction input prices rise year over year

Overall construction input prices declined 0.1 percent in December, yet despite the lack of inflation for the month, prices are up 5 percent on a year-over-year basis, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), Washington. Nonresidential construction materials prices also declined 0.1 percent for the month and are up 4.8 percent from the same time one year ago.

Energy prices have been more volatile lately, ABC says. Natural gas prices increased 13.7 percent from November but are 6.3 percent lower on a year-over-year basis. Crude petroleum prices rose 16.4 percent between December 2016 and December 2017.

“Given stronger global and domestic economic growth, elevated liquidity in international financial markets, burgeoning trade disputes and efforts by certain energy producers to limit supply growth even as prices rise, one would have expected a sharper increase in construction materials prices in December,” ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu says. “The fact that inflation remains contained should be viewed by most contractors as very good news. Not only are many contractors vulnerable to sudden increases in certain materials prices, but faster inflation can trigger higher interest rates, which ultimately reduce the demand for construction services.

“Though the overall producer price index (PPI) indicates low December inflation, a number of materials prices increased, including iron and steel and the category that includes prepared asphalt,” he adds. “Softwood lumber prices, by contrast, fell. Despite December’s reprieve from rising inflationary pressures, many economists expect inflation to become more apparent as 2018 proceeds. Recently enacted federal tax cuts stand to supercharge the economy, which should translate into more construction starts later this year and into 2019.”

Visit www.abc.org for more analyses.